Reverse Line Movement to Beat the Vegas Sports Betting Odds

RLM is primarily used https://officialpinup.com/ in sports betting, but it can also be used in other forms of gambling such as horse racing and political betting. For example, let’s say the money in the Pacers vs. Heat game mentioned above wasn’t so lopsided, but was just fairly even. If a sharp placed a large bet on the over, the book might move the line higher just because of where that money came from and the source that bet it.

A “head fake” refers to a situation where the betting line or odds for a particular game appear to move in one direction, but then quickly move back in the opposite direction. Bettors who are able to predict where the line is going to move are better positioned to secure favorable betting odds. The over/under is a bet on the total number of runs, goals, or points scored in a particular event. If the over/under increases, it means the expected total number of points, runs, or goals has increased (Over 54 to Over 58), which may be a sign the event is expected to be high-scoring. If the over/under decreases (Over 54 to Over 50), it means the expected total number of points, runs, or goals has decreased, which may be a sign the event is expected to be low-scoring.

When used correctly, reverse line movement strategy can be very beneficial and profitable. Now that standard line movement has been explained, it is time to take a look at reverse line movement. In short, this occurs when sharps and squares are on opposing sites of a game. This happens quite frequently since the public will usually place bets on the favorite while sharp bettors tend to bet in the opposite direction. With Sports Insights, you’ll get our profitable Best Bets picks. Our betting systems are developed by a team of “propeller heads”; economists, PhDs and CFAs, not salesmen.

You’d expect with all the bets coming in on the Jaguars PointsBet would want to encourage people to bet on the Chief. To do this, they would give the Chiefs a more favorable line like -7. Instead, they did the opposite and made the line even more favorable for betting on the Jags. If the books are unbalanced, then there is a risk of taking a loss. Since Vegas casinos are now run by corporations, and corporations generally frown on losing money, the days of sportsbook managers taking a stance on games are long gone.

• Long term, taking bets before a reverse line move is a winning strategy.
• It’s a strong indicator of sharp money, especially when paired with timing, split data, or your own research.
• While it’s not a foolproof system, understanding and tracking RLM can help you make more informed wagers and avoid following misleading public trends.
• A sportsbook with more recreational players moves the lines based on where the money is.
• RLM is valuable, but success comes from beating the move or the closing line.

If the line or odds move in the opposite direction of the expected movement, it can be an indication of reverse line movement. There are a few strategies sports bettors can employ to better predict the movement of a betting line. Some of the most common ways include odds movements, spreads widening or contracting, and totals increasing or decreasing.

By doing so, the book is expecting that more people will bet on the under and lose, therefore making the sharp and the book profit. Start your free month of Portfolio EV today and elevate your betting strategy. Line movements are vital for sportsbooks to survive in green numbers.

Sharp money, which is sometimes referred to as smart money, is from bettors that sportsbooks will trust to be on the right side in most cases. By knowing the difference between these two things, bettors will become more successful. Sportsbook Insider takes you behind the lines and shows you what is happening on the sportsbook side.

If reverse line movement aligns with high money percentages on the less popular side, it’s likely sharps moving the line. Reverse line movement is a key indicator of where sharp money is going, offering insight into potential betting value. While it’s not a foolproof system, understanding and tracking RLM can help you make more informed wagers and avoid following misleading public trends. Reverse line movement (RLM) occurs when the betting line shifts in the opposite direction of the majority of public bets.

NFL Betting

If 60% of the bets are coming in on that team to cover, the books are vulnerable. In this case, you would expect the line to go up to -6.5 or -7. They do their best to set an opening line that they feel will attract bettors to both sides.

Example Of Reverse Line Movement and How You Can Take Advantage of It

If you are interested in NFL line movement then you will definitely be interested in the sportbook bonuses we have to offer for each legal state. Legal sportsbooks near you are giving away free bonuses just for signing up, so make sure you are taking advantage of these offers and winning more bets with BetQL. While reverse line movement can indicate sharp money, blindly following it is not a winning strategy.

You bet on the non-public side—the one moving against public action. If most bets are on one side and the line shifts the other way, you back the side moving against the public. They need bettors to wager for Washington because a Giants win would hurt them badly.

The line, however, doesn’t always move toward the more popular side. It still raises an eyebrow as to why Vegas is luring people into a bet that they’d lose a lot money of if it hit. Okay, I just made the case on why you need to avoid reverse line movement.

The line moves to -6, which might be telling you a respected sharp put a big bet on the Bills at -4. Well, sad new is you’re not able to get the same bet as the sharp. The Jaguars ended up losing by 7 points, so all those bets and money that came in on the Jaguars won (because they were either at +9 or +9.5 on the Jaguars). If you followed the reverse line and assumed the sharp bets were on the Chiefs, you would have lost. Almost every time you play an RLM, you are betting alongside the sharps. These are people who do this for a living and spend countless hours breaking down games.

Public Money vs. Sharp Money:

Sharps tend to bet when limits are highest, usually closer to game time. If reverse line movement happens early in the week with low limits, it might be public money or a sportsbook adjusting for liability. If it occurs late with higher limits, it’s more likely to be sharp-driven. A useful trick is to compare the percentage of bets to the percentage of money on a team. If a team is getting 25% of the bets but 50% of the money, that often indicates sharp action.

A single point, or even a half point, may not seem like a lot, but it can make the difference between a losing and winning ticket. Another factor is reverse line movement, which will occur when any line moves in the opposite direction of most bets placed. Here, bettors can learn more about reverse line movement and discover how it can have an impact on the betting experience. Throughout the week, the number of bets and total dollars wagered has been consistently coming in on the Chiefs -7, however, the line starts moving in favor of Colts. The line initially moves to Chiefs favored by -6.5, trickles down to -6, and eventually, settles before kickoff at a final of -5.5. Because the sportsbooks goal for creating any odds line is to have a balanced amount of money on both sides, the reverse line movement is necessary to try to make the liability on each side close to 50/50.

For example, let’s say that the Buffalo Bills start out as a 14-point favorite against the Houston Texans. Last year, the Texans were one of the worst teams in the NFL, so public bettors were very likely to back Buffalo in that spot. Reverse line movement (RLM) refers to a situation where the betting line or odds for a particular event move in the opposite direction of the expected or typical movement. Reverse line movement can be a sign there is something unusual or unexpected happening with the team, players, or market. Bettors should not rely solely on RLM when placing their bets. They should also consider other factors such as the teams’ performance, the players’ conditions, statistics, and weather conditions.

So sounds like a gold mine, and bettors love this kind of thing. This will be a guide to reverse line movement, but I’m also going to cover why the common advice to follow and jump on reverse line movement is bad advice. I’m guessing a lot of you right now are asking yourself if it’s profitable to follow.

This type of movement reflects information the public isn’t acting on — betting limits being hit by sharps, injury news that hasn’t gone mainstream, or a pitching edge not reflected in basic stats. It’s a hint that the books are reacting to risk from informed bettors rather than crowd volume. Head fakes can be used by sharp sports bettors as a strategy to manipulate betting markets and potentially take advantage of less experienced or casual bettors. It is important for sports bettors to carefully consider all relevant player and matchup information before placing a bet, rather than simply chasing the “steam” based on the sudden shift in the odds or line.

We track in real time all the forces that move lines – public betting, sharp money, injury reports & weather updates. To illustrate this concept, let’s say you are tracking the lines for a series of basketball games between the Brooklyn Nets and the Milwaukee Bucks. Over the course of the series, you notice the same line (the moneyline) for the Nets consistently moves in favor of the Bucks one hour before tipoff, even when the Nets are playing at home. A bettor who believes the Nets are undervalued based on this trend may see this as an opportunity to bet on the Nets and potentially find value, particularly before the predictable pre-tipoff adjustment. Some bettors view RLM as an indicator of potential value or an opportunity to potentially beat the market. For example, if a large amount of money is being placed on the favorite but the line moves in favor of the underdog, this could indicate that there is value in betting on the underdog.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call GAMBLER. Seeing RLM move the line toward them adds confidence that you’re aligned with sharp action. Reverse line movement happens when the odds move against the side receiving the majority of public bets. Reverse line movement is typically an indication that a bettor or group of bettors with the money and respect to move a line is on that side. We may link to gambling sites or reference gambling at times, and it’s up to you to make sure this is legal in your area (varies by location).